三、案例分析:“大规模杀伤性武器”在哪里?
伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器是布什政府发动第二次伊拉克战争的借口，然而，我们知道这只不过是一个用话语所“制造的共识”(Manufacturing Consent)。战前，布什政府不断声称伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器(Mass Destruction Weapons，MDW)——化学、生物和核武器，这些武器对美国和世界的安全具有极大的威胁。尽管战前，国际原子能机构(Atomic Energy Agency，IAEA)、一些外国情报机构和组织，甚至美国自己的情报机构都怀疑伊拉克是否拥有MDW或研发计划，但是美国政府却言之凿凿、深信不疑地认为伊拉克拥有MDW，并以此为借口发动了战争。战争于2003年3月爆发之后，以英美为首的联军侵入了伊拉克，并展开了仔细的核查。结果令他们非常失望，他们没有发现伊拉克拥有MDW或发展MDW的计划。这场战争可以说是运用种种修辞性话语策略建构起来的“战争神话”，让我们再一次领教了语言的魔力——“预加其罪，何患无辞”。贝斯黑莱姆将缺乏检验，或与检验结果、逻辑推理相违背以及不符合客观实际的观点和信念定义为偏见，并且这种观点和信念还被当作事实，像真理一样起作用。[33]从这个意义上讲，布什的战争话语表达的就是一种偏见。
古希腊哲学家亚里士多德(Aristotle)曾提出演讲者可采用三种修辞策略来说服听众:[34]
(1)Logos(理性):论证结构和一个好的论证可利用推理来支持一个结论的方式。(2)Ethos(特质):论证者的性格或我们更加倾向信任那些我们觉得可信赖，或对讨论议题拥有较多知识的人的方式。(3)Pathos(情感):使用煽情性的主题或煽情性的语言使听众更加能够接受你的结论。
布什政府在战前发表的各种演说就是充分运用了以上策略，说服了美国民众相信了他们的“真实的谎言”——伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器，并最终同意发动战争。其说服策略如下:(1)Logos:伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器且与“基地”组织有密切联系;(2)Ethos:总统及其国家安全部门提供的情报应该是可靠的;(3)Pathos:如果不发动战争清除大规模杀伤性武器的话，后果是不堪设想的。
情态系统不仅表达了说话人对某个事件的有效性和真实性的判断和情感，而且还建构了说话人与受话人之间的关系，可以集中地反映上述三个策略。下面，我们以倒计时的方式来研究一下布什政府如何运用情态策略，在政府报告、公开演讲和新闻媒体中把一个“不确定”的事件表征成为一个确凿的“事实”，从而制造恐慌和恐惧，并影响公众的认知以获取民众对战争的支持，让他们感到战争如箭在弦上不得不发了。为了反衬布什战争话语的非真实性和非客观性，在下面布什政府发表的各种言论的中间和结尾处，穿插和附加了国际原子能机构(IAEA)在战前发表的对伊拉克大规模杀伤性武器的调查报告，以及战后美国中央情报局(CIA)所指定的伊拉克调查小组(Iraq Survey Group)发表的最终调查报告。
(以下分析所用语料来源于:www.leadingtowar.com/claims_facts_noweapons)
(1)“Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. The Iraqi regime has plotted to develop anthrax，and nerve gas，and nuclear weapons for over a decade□.By seeking weapons of mass destruction，these regimes pose a grave and growing danger.
“We'll be deliberate，yet time is not on our side.I will not wait on events，while dangers gather.I will not stand by，as peril draws closer and closer.The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world'smost destructive weapons.”
January 29，2002;President George W.Bush Delivers His State of the Union Address
在第一段里，布什渲染大规模杀伤性武器带来的“严重的、日益加强的危险”(a grave and growing danger)。在英文中，使用不同的情态动词表达情态意义时有一个程度阶(scale)的问题，如might，may，will和must所表达的情态意义就是由弱逐渐增强的。在第二段中，布什连续使用了四个情态意义较强的情态动词will(在这里，will不是表示将来时态的助动词)，以表明他对伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器这一“事实”的确信无疑，以及开战的决心。另外，他还使用了两个含有形容词最高级的短语:most dangerous regimes(最危险的集团)和most destructive weapons(最危险的杀伤性武器)，不仅预设了存在大规模杀伤性武器的事实，而且渲染了一种恐惧气氛，为开战寻找可信的理由。
(2)“I would remind you that when the inspectors□went into Iraq□a report came out of the Atomic—the IAEA—that they were six months away from developing a weapon.I don't know what more evidence we need.”
September 7，2002;President George W.Bush Addresses the Press with British Prime Minister Tony Blair
最后一句I don't knowwhatmore evidence we need.(我不知道我们还需要什么更多的证据。)表达了一种强烈的主观情态——我们掌握的关于伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器的证据已经够多，无需更多证据。
(3)“UN inspectors believe Iraq has produced two to four times the amount of biological agents it declared，and has failed to account for more than three metric tons of material that could be used to produce biological weapons.Right now，Iraq is expanding and improving facilities that were used for the protection of biological weapons.
“United Nations inspections also revealed that Iraq likely maintains stockpiles of VX，mustard and other chemical agents，and that the regime is rebuilding and expanding facilities capable of producing chemical weapons□”
“With every step the Iraqi regime takes toward gaining and developing the most terrible weapons，our own options to confront that regime will narrow.And if an emboldened regime were to supply these weapons to terrorist allies，then the attacks of September the 11th would be a prelude to far greater horrors.”
September 12，2002;President George Speaks at the United Nations General Assembly，New York
情态意义还可以用时态来表达。在这里，布什使用了现在时态和一般现在时来表达一种正在发生的、不容置疑的“事实”——他们正在研发大规模杀伤性武器。Right now，Iraq is expanding and improving facilities□(现在，伊拉克正在扩建和提升设施……);the regime is rebuilding and expanding facilities□(这个集团正在重建和扩建设施……);With every step the Iraqi regime takes□(伊拉克集团所采取的每一步……)。他还将联合国的调查报告认为伊拉克可能(likely)贮存有化学武器观点绝对化，强调他们正在重建和扩建能够生产化学武器的设施，并做出令人“恐惧”的结论:如果对其听之任之，“9·11”的悲剧将重蹈覆辙。
(4)“The danger to our country is grave□The Iraqi regime possesses biological and chemical weapons.The Iraqi regime is building the facilities necessary to make more biological and chemical weapons.”
“According to the British government，the Iraqi regime could launch a biological or chemical attack in as little as45 minutes，after the orders were given.”
September 26，2002;President George W.Bush Addresses the Press in the White House Rose Garden
在第一段中，布什使用一般现在时和现在进行时来表达绝对情态(categoricalmodality)，即他对伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器的深信不疑:The danger to our country is grave□(对我们国家的危险是严峻的……);The Iraqi regime possesses biological and chemical weapons.(伊拉克集团拥有生化武器。) The Iraqi regime is building the facilities necessary to make more biological and chemical weapons.(伊拉克集团正在建造必要的设施来制造更多的生化武器。)第二段中，布什引用英国政府的情报，使用了一个情态意义很强的词could，进一步强化伊拉克MDW威胁的确定性。
(5)“Saddam Hussein is a homicidal dictator who is addicted to weapons of mass destruction.”
“We agree that the Iraqi dictatormust not be permitted to threaten America and the world with horrible poisons，and diseases，and gasses，and atomic weapons.”
“We've also discovered，through intelligence，that Iraq has a growing fleet of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles that could be used to disburse chemical or biological weapons across broad areas.We're concerned that Iraq is exploring ways of using these UAVsformissions targeting the United States.”
“The evidence indicates that Iraq is reconstituting its nuclear weapons program.”
“Satellite photographs reveal that Iraq is rebuilding facilities at sites that have been part of its nuclear programin the past.”
“Iraq has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes and other equipment needed for gas centrifuges，which are used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons.”
“If the Iraqi regime is able to produce，buy or steal an amount of highly enriched uranium a little larger than a single softball，it could have a nuclear weapon in less than a year.”
“America must not ignore the threat gathering against us.Facing clear evidence of peril，we cannot wait for the final proof，the smoking gun，that could come in the form of a mushroomcloud.”
October 7，2002;President George W.Bush Outlines the Iraqi Threat at the Cincinnati Museum Center
上述段落使用了多种表达情态意义的方式，除了时态(一般现在时和现在进行时)和情态动词(must，can，could)以外，另一个显著特征就是使用人称代词we来表达情态。第一人称复数代词we/us/our/ours按照听话者是否包含在内，可以分成外排(exclusive)和内包(inclusive)两种用法。[35]前者如We knowwhat's the best for you，so you'd better follow us.往往可以起到疏远对方的作用，对听话人而言则有受人摆布之感。We agree□We've also discovered□We're concerned□We cannot wait□属于内包用法。内包用法旨在拉近和缩短说话人和听话者之间的距离，给人一种平等参与、休戚与共的感觉，但是有时也会被权力人物操纵来将自己的意志强加给听话人，从而呈现出意识形态意义。在这里，布什用we的内包用法力图将“伊拉克的威胁”强加给美国人民，以达到“同仇敌忾”的目的。
(6)“I think most people around the world realize that Saddam Hussein is a threat.And no one likes war，but they also don't like the idea of Saddam Hussein having a nuclear weapon.Imagine what would happen.And by the way，we don't know how close he is to a nuclear weapon rightnow.We know he wants one□”
November 7，2002;President George W.Bush Speaks to the Press in the Presidential Hall
And no one likes war，but they also don't like the idea of Saddam Hussein having a nuclear weapon.(没有人喜欢战争，但是他们也不喜欢萨达姆·侯赛因拥有核武器的想法。)这里，布什将主观情态，即他自己的评判转换成客观情态，将自己的看法泛化成公众的普遍看法。此外，like和don't like以绝对的肯定和否定来表达情态，为发动战争寻找借口。
(7)“The United Nations concluded in 1999 that Saddam Hussein had biological weapons sufficient to produce over 25，000 liters of anthrax—enough doses to kill several million people.He hasn't accounted for that material.He's given no evidence that he has destroyed it.”
“The United Nations concluded that Saddam Hussein had materials sufficient to produce more than 38，000 liters of botulinumtoxin—enough to subjectmillions of people to death by respiratory failure.He hadn't accounted for that material.He's given no evidence that he has destroyed it.”
“Our intelligence officials estimate that SaddamHussein had the materials to produce as much as 500 tons of sarin，mustard and VX nerve agent.In such quantities，these chemical agents could also kill untold thousands.He's not accounted for these materials.He has given no evidence that he has destroyed them.”
“The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.”
“Our intelligence sources tell us that he has attempted to purchase highstrength aluminumtubes suitable for nuclear weapons production.”
“The dictator of Iraq is not disarming.To the contrary，he is deceiving.”
January 28，2003;President George W.Bush Delivers His State of the Union Address
The United Nations concluded□(联合国做出结论……);Our intelligence official estimated that□(我们的情报官员估计……);The British government has learned that□(英国政府已经得知……);Our intelligence sources tell us that□(我们的情报来源告诉我们……)。布什借用这些“权威”机构和“可信赖”人员所提供的信息来帮助表达自己的主观情态。
(8)“The Iraqi regime has acquired and tested the means to deliver weapons of mass destruction.Iraq has developed spray devices that could be used on unmanned aerial vehicles，with ranges far beyond what is permitted by the Security Council.A UAV launched from a vessel off the American coast could reach hundreds of miles inland.”
“And we have sources that tell us that Saddam Hussein recently authorized Iraqi field commanders to use chemical weapons，the very weapons the dictator tells the world he does not have.”
February 6，2003;President George W.Bush Delivers a Speech at the White House
两个表达强烈情态意义的could渲染了伊拉克大规模杀伤性武器的投射能力;第二段中的we(我们的消息渠道告诉我们，萨达姆·侯赛因最近授权伊拉克战地指挥官使用化学武器，但是这个独裁者告诉世界他没有这种武器。)是外排性(exclusive)用法，表达“我们”和“他/他们”的不同。
以下穿插的是2003年3月7日国际原子能机构总干事巴拉迪发表的调查报告。
“One，there is no indication of resumed nuclear activities in those buildings that were identified through the use of satellite imagery as being reconstructed or newly erected since 1998，nor any indication of nuclear-related prohibited activities at any inspected sites.”
“Second，there is no indication that Iraq has attempted to import uraniumsince 1990.”
“Three，there is no indication that Iraq has attempted to import aluminum tubes for use in centrifuge enrichment.Moreover，even had Iraq pursued such a plan，it would have encountered practical difficulties in manufacturing centrifuge out of the aluminumtubes in question□”
“After three months of intrusive inspections，we have to date found no evidence or plausible indication of the revival of a nuclear weapon programin Iraq□”
“I should note that in the past three weeks，possibly as a result of everincreasing pressure by the international community，Iraq has been forthcoming in its cooperation，particularly with regard to the conduct of private interviews and in making available evidence that could contribute to the resolution of matters of IAEA concern□”
March 7，2003;After Months of U.N.Weapons Inspections，International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA)Director General Mohamed ElBaradei Delivers a Speech to the United Nations
与布什深信不疑的“事实”相反的是，就在战争爆发前的十二天，国际原子能机构的总干事巴拉迪发表了一个经过三个月深入调查(intrusive inspections)的，关于伊拉克大规模杀伤性武器的报告。报告的结论是:“经过三个月的深入调查，到目前为止我们没有发现伊拉克恢复核武器计划的证据或可能的迹象……我要指出的是在过去的三周中，可能是受到国际社会不断增强的压力，伊拉克愿意进行合作，特别是愿意进行私人会谈，也愿意提供有助于国际原子能机构解决所关注问题的证据。”
(9)“Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised.”
“The danger is clear:using chemical，biological，or，one day，nuclear weapons，obtained with the help of Iraq，the terrorists could fulfill their stated ambition and kill thousands or hundreds of thousands of innocent people in our country，or any other.”
March 17，2003;President George W.Bush Delivers His Address to the Nation
但是布什政府对国际原子能机构的调查结论置若罔闻，继续使用具有极高情态意义的语言来坚持己见:“本政府和其他的政府所收集到的情报不容置疑地证明，伊拉克集团继续拥有和隐藏一些最致命的武器”，并再一次断言:“危险显而易见”，伊拉克集团与恐怖分子的勾结使这些武器的使用变得非常可怕，若不及时根除，后果不堪设想。
March 19，2003，the U.S.launches military strikes，commencing the Iraq War.
(2003年3月19日，美国发动了军事打击，伊拉克战争爆发了。)
(10)“Since the liberation of Iraq，our investigators have found evidence of a clandestine network of biological laboratories，advanced design work on prohibited long-range missiles，and elaborate campaign to hide these illegal programs.”
“There's a lot more to investigate.Yet it is now undeniable—undeniable—that Saddam Hussein was in clear violation of United Nations Security Council resolution 1441.It is undeniable that Saddam Hussein was a deceiver and a danger.The Security Council was right to demand that Saddam disarm.And America was right to enforce that demand.Thanks to our brave troops and a coalition of nations，America is now more secure，the world is more peaceful and Iraq is free.”
October 8，2003;President George W.Bush Speaks at the Republican National Committee Presidential Gala，Washington DC
伊拉克“解放”后，“我们”找到了一些“证据”，但是需要进一步调查，“但是，现在不可否认的是，不可否认的是，萨达姆·侯赛因明显违反了联合国安理会1441号决议。不可否认的是萨达姆·侯赛因是一个骗子和一个危险人物”。这时，布什频繁使用表达强烈情态意义的短语it is undeniable□已经不管用了，我们不难看出，到底谁是“骗子和危险人物”。
以下是美国中央情报局指定的伊拉克调查小组(ISG)发表的最终调查报告。
“Saddam【Hussein】ended the nuclear programin 1991 following the Gulf War.IS G found no evidence to suggest concerted efforts to restart the program.”
“While a small number of old，abandoned chemical munitions have been discovered，ISG judges that Iraq unilaterally destroyed its undeclared chemical weapons stockpile in 1991.There are no credible indications that Baghdad resumed production of chemicalmunitions thereafter.”
“In practical terms，with the destruction of the AI Hakam facility，Iraq abandoned its ambition to obtain advanced BWweapons quickly.ISG found no direct evidence that Iraq，after 1996，had plans for a new BWprogramor was conducting BW-specific work for military purposes.”
“Iraq would have faced great difficulty in re-establishing an effective BWagent production capability.”
“In spite of exhaustive investigation，ISG found no evidence that Iraq possessed，or was developing BWagent production systems mounted on road vehicles or railway wagons.”
September 30，2004;After 18 Months of Exhaustive Investigations，the CIAappointed Iraq Survey Group(ISG)Issues Its Final Report
与布什政府“不可否认”相对照的是，中央情报局指定的伊拉克调查小组(ISG)的最终调查报告以非常明确的语言:ISG found no evidence□(ISG没有发现证据……);There are no credible indications that□(没有可信的迹象……);ISG found no direct evidence that□(ISG没有发现直接的证据……); In spite of exhaustive investigation，ISG found no evidence that□(尽管进行了彻底的调查，ISG没有发现证据……)，表明布什政府的“断言”纯属子虚乌有。
通过以上分析可以看出，布什政府出于自身利益和目的的考虑，操纵话语来编织战争借口，尤其是运用各种情态表达手段，表达了他们对伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器这一“事件”的评价和态度，对“事件”的权威性和不可置疑性言论还表明了他们的优势权力地位，以谋求公众对其所做出选择的支持。在此，我们可以看清布什政府是如何运用语言来建构一个令人恐怖但并不存在的“现实”，以及如何运用either□or□(要么……要么……)二元对立的思维逻辑告诫美国人民，面对伊拉克的威胁，如果“我们”不采取行动，“他们”就会制造种种可怕的后果。于是，除了战争，便没有其他的选择了。布什政府的这种缺乏检验、与客观事实不相符合，但像“真理”一样起作用的战争话语，其实就是一种偏见。
免责声明：以上内容源自网络，版权归原作者所有，如有侵犯您的原创版权请告知，我们将尽快删除相关内容。
