手机增值服务将来的发展

（一）手机广告

手机广告在印度仍然是处在初期发展的产业。利益相关者始终对其处于试用阶段，并且到目前为止并没有标准的商业模式设立。随着手机订户基数的不断增长，手机广告当然具有非常大的发展潜力，但是还需要用2～3年的时间才能逐步形成，并且开始稳步发展。现在，估计手机广告产业大概有近15亿卢比的利润。^【117】

手机短信广告是主要的手机广告类型。估计短信广告的利润总数达到了10亿卢比，而展示广告的利润估计在近2.5亿卢比。^【118】到目前为止，在印度就没有其他非常明显的手机广告形式了。

（二）娱乐手机增值服务

娱乐手机增值服务将在未来发展的一个阶段内仍然是手机增值业务类型中关键的服务。它将是市场发展的主要驱动力。但是，随着其他一些因素，像成熟的手机用户数量的增长、设备的可用性增强，预计数据服务在将来手机增值服务使用中占据主要领导地位。这些数据额服务可能通过手机设备看电视、玩游戏、下载想要的视频点播和创建个性化的内容，比如社会关系网络、上传照片和视频等。

（三）3G的影响

等待已久的3G竞标终于在2010年5月全部结束了。所有主要的手机经销商都参与进了此次竞标，可以很明显地看出，3G具有非常大的潜力。预计3G将会为整个手机产业的生态环境带来许多服务和利润。3G有望引进高品质的声音和高速率的数据以及视频服务，这三项都是手机增值服务将来最主要的组成部分。

像视频技术、手机电视、视频点播这样的服务将在相对较短的时间内提供，其他的服务，像音乐下载、在线游戏这样的服务可能需要稍长一点时间。

尽管3G光谱竞标已经结束，但是在整个手机生态系统中推广3G可能还需要2～3年的时间。^【119】这个时期将是一个过渡时间，在这段时间里，所有的手机产业利益相关者都必须将他们的意识和经历转向3G的推广。手机经营商和网络供应商必须能够提供3G服务，手机将兼容3G，并通过3G服务得到更多的利润，提供的内容也必须和3G兼容。

很难说3G是否会在短时期内给手机增值服务产业带来思考模式的转变。同样，对于3G的成功，手机产业的利益相关者，包括使用者都需要在提升自我方面保持同样的脚步。3G的成功依赖于在这个生态系统中所有加入的实体，也需要这些实体能够保持一致的发展态度。撇开这些基础结构的问题，手机设备和技术的兼容性，还有其他因素，像价格定位同样也是3G能够取得成功的关键。^【120】到目前为止，手机增值服务仍然是一项额外收费的服务。除了点对点短讯服务外，没有其他的手机增值服务已经真正商品化。

展望3G对手机增值服务产业的影响，这种影响肯定是非常积极的。3G将来肯定是印度手机增值服务发展的主要驱动因素。但是，到现在为止，我们也无法看出，它将是推动印度手机增值服务发展唯一的还是主要的因素。3G具有很大的潜力去改变印度手机增值服务产业。印度手机增值服务的将来将会是数据服务，而不仅仅是语音服务。我们将可以看到，手机经营商们到底是用3G来提供“提高声音质量”还是“提高数据质量”的服务。除非这种倾向或者视野改变，否则，将很难看到3G度手机增值服务真实的正面的影响^【121】。

（四）服务创新

提供绝对成功的手机增值服务是一个零和博弈。它在价值和数量之间一定有一个平衡点。为消费者群体以合适的价格提供正确的服务是成功的关键。以价值为基础握供的服务在将来肯定会占据主导地位。

价值驱动增长

手机经营商和手机增值服务供应商必须将手机增值服务用户以他们的需求和他们对增值服务的使用划分成几个部分。以这几个部分将手机用户定为服务目标会比以手机用户的年龄将他们划分部分对应提供服务更有效。例如，在城市市场，手机经营商必须将手机用户分为单亲家庭、有专职工作的用户群、家庭主妇，他们使用手机和对手机增值服务的需要都具有特殊的性质和明显的特征。对他们需求的、与他们相关的手机增值服务，具有巨大的消费潜力。另外，年轻人和中学生是最常使用手机增值服务的客户群，但是他们因为各种各样的因素，比如说没有购买力而只能对这些增值服务驻足观望，不能成为成功的消费群体。

在农村市场，语言和内容是手机增值服务主要的挑战。预计农村手机增值服务会以语音服务占据主导地位。对农村的手机用户来说，以地理位置为基础的服务和信息增值服务如果能够正确地实施，将会在农村地区取得成功。

为了保证能有更高的每用户平均消费值，每个类型的手机增值服务的创新服务周期都应该是相互承接的^【122】。服务创新的方向应该根据所处位置、成熟程度和手机增值服务的传承而有所改变。无间断服务创新将在很大程度上依赖于提供一项技术服务后，从使用经验而来的企业再造和学习。这是非常关键和必要的，但是，进入继续学习的模式和重新再造服务，本质上是技术的不可知论，这对于手机产业中手机增值服务提供的内容需要一定的时间去审视。

注释

【1】Desai, Ashok: India's Telecommunication Industry-History, Analysis, Diagnosis, Sage Publications, New Delhi, 2006.

【2】TRAI Report [C].

【3】The Price of Mobile Number Portability in India; New Telcos Vs Old, on August 11th, 2009, http://www.medianama.com/2009/08/223-the-price-of-mobile-number-portability-in-india-new-telcos-vs-old/

【4】I-cube, 2008, IMRB Syndication [C].

【5】I-Cube, 2008, IMRB Syndication [C].

【6】TRAI Report [C].

【7】Yankee Group [C].

【8】May2010: India Added Over 11.25 Million GSM Connections, on June 17th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/06/223-may-2010-india-added-over-11-25-million-gsm-connections/

【9】Is MTNLs 3G Mobile Content Services Tender Worth Applying For? On March 17th, 2009, http://www.medianama.com/2009/03/223-is-mtnls-3g-mobile-content-services-tender-worth-applying-for/

【10】TA Associates Invests $ 45M in Indian Mobile Handset Manu facturer Micromax, on January 14th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/01/223-ta-associates-invests-45m-in-indian-mobile-handset-manufacturer-micromax/

【11】WiBro是三星电子与韩国电子通信研究院（ETRI）、与SK电讯等依据802.16e标准共同开发的，世界上只有韩国政府很早就正式为移动WiMAX分配了2.3GHz频率资源。

【12】Yankee Group, 2008 [C].

【13】Israel's Content Bunny Acquires Rights to Universal Music Content for IVR in India, on June 23rd, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/06/223-israels-content-bunny-acquires-rights-to-uni-versal-music-content-for-ivr-in-india/

【14】Updated: Facebook Goes Mobile in India with Tata Indicom, on April 20th, 2009, http://www.medianama.com/2009/04/223-facebook-goes-mobile-in-india-with-tata-indicom/

【15】Vodafone Launches Mobile Application Store; IPL Tickets, on March 10th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/03/223-vodafone-launches-mobile-application-store-ipl-tickets/

【16】iPhone Roundup: BSNL, Nazara, Airtel EMI, on September 10th, 2008, http://www.medianama.com/2008/09/223-iphone-roundup-bsnl-nazara-airtel-emi/

【17】It's Getting Crowded at the Lower End Of India's Handset Market, on July 2nd, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/07/223-its-getting-crowded-at-the-lower-end-of-indias-handset-market/#more-18323

【18】http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/wearable_Internet.php

【19】http://www.zdnetasia.com/itlibrary/desktops-laptops-andos/0,3800009948,44124284p,00.htm

【20】Times Group Mobility Head Nandan Srinath on Mirchi Mobile: Pricing, Analytics, Advertising, on May 7th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/05/223-times-group-mobility-head-nan-dan-srinath-on-mirchi-mobile-pricing-analytics-advertising/

【21】WIN's Largest Shareholder Says IMI Mobile's Bid Undervalues Co, on June 10th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/06/223-wins-largest-shareholder-says-imi-mobiles-bid-undervalues-co/

【22】Updated: Aircel to Launch Mobile App Store with Infosys In 4-8 Months, on January 11th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/01/223-aircel-to-launch-mobile-app-store-with-infosys-next-quarter/

【23】TRAI Report, september, 2009, I-cube estimates.

【24】2009 India Mobility Trends, December 16th, 2008, http://emergic.org/2008/12/16/2009-india-mobility-trends/#comments

【25】2009 India Mobility Trends, December 16th, 2008, http://emergic.org/2008/12/16/2009-india-mobility-trends/#comments

【26】IMRB Report [C].

【27】IMRB Report [C].

【28】What Exactly Is Rcom's Mobile Jockey Service? On May 5th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/

【29】Web18 Takes Mobile Internet Properties In-House, on June 25th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/06/223-web18-takes-mobile-intemet-properties-in-house/#more-18227

【30】I cube 2008, IMRB Syndication

【31】3G Auctions & Mobile Number Portability in India Delayed? On December 9th, 2009, http://www.medianama.com/2009/12/223-3g-auctions-mobile-number-portabilityin-india-delayed/

【32】Indian Government Constitutes Panel for National ID Project, on August 4th, 2009, http://www.medianama.com/2009/08/223-indian-govemment-constitutes-panel-for-national-id-project/

【33】Indian Government Made 1061 Requests to Google for User Data; Incomplete Data, on April 23rd, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/04/223-indian-govemment-made-1061-requests-to-google-for-user-da-ta-incomplete-data/

【34】India Announces Tender for Mobile Number Portability Operators, on November 27th, 2008, http://www.medianama.com/2008/11/223-india-announces-tender-for-mobile-number-portability-op-erators/

【35】It's Getting Crowded at the Lower End Of India's Handset Market, on July 2nd, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/07/223-its-getting-crowded-at-the-lower-end-of-indias-handset-market/#more-18323

【36】阿尔卡特，财富500强公司之一，总部设在法国，主要经营电讯。

【37】日本多科莫公司，日本知名移动通信运营商。

【38】Reliance Communications Board Approves 26% Stake Sale, on June 7th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/06/223-reliance-communications-etisalat-rcom-26/

【39】India Mobile Number Portability Mandate Given to Telcordia And Syniverse Technologies, on March 6th, 2009, http://www.medianama.com/2009/03/223-india-mobile-number-portability-man-date-given-to-telcordia-and-syniverse-technologies/

【40】Can the Future Group Launch MVNO Services Yet? No Final Policy In India, on January 11th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/01/223-can-the-future-group-launch-mvno-services-yet-no-final-policy-in-india/

【41】Idea Cellular Call: 3G Rollout Dec-Feb; Data Approach; Tariff Bloodbath; MNP Not, http://www.medianama.com/2010/08/223-idea-cellular-call-3g-rollout-dec-feb-data-approach-tariff-bloodbath-mnp-not-game-changing/

【42】Advertisement: IMImobile Launches DaVinci Campaign Manager for Multi-channel Mobile Promotions, on August 9th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/08/223-advertisement-imimo-bile-launches-davinci-campaign-manager-for-multi-channel-mobile-promotions/

【43】Way2SMS Reaches 10 Million Users; $ 1.5M Topline; Email to SMS, on April 15th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/04/223-way2sms-reaches-10-million-users-1-5m-topline-email-to-sms/

【44】Ratti et al, Mobile Landscapes: Using Cell Phone Data for Urban Analysis, 2005. http://senseable.mit.edu/papers/pdf/2006_Ratti_Pulselli_Williams_Frenchman_EPB.pdf

【45】Tomi T. Ahonen: "Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media" [C].

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【47】What Exactly Is Rcom's Mobile Jockey Service? On May 5th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/05/223-what-exactly-is-rcoms-mobile-jockey-service/

【48】Updated: IPL Supports Rights Holders; vRock Bags IPL Mobile Rights, on March 8th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/03/223-vrock-ipl/

【49】《智能手机进村，印度手机产业机遇与挑战并存》，2008年8月22日，国际电子商情。

【50】WIN PLC Board Recommends IMI Mobile's Cash Offer to Shareholders; Why This Deal, on June 26th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/06/223-win-plc-board-recommends-imi-mobiles-cash-offer-to-shareholders-why-this-deal/#more-18241

【51】I-cube report 2010 [C].

【52】Open Mobile Alliance www.openmobilealliance.org.

【53】CDMA的供应商Reliance and Tata，2009年开始了他们的GSM服务。

【54】TRAI Report [C].

【55】Martin Garner: "Don't Panic over ARPU-We're Actually Spending More", http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson/corpinfo/publications/ericsson_business_review/pdf/issue_nol/opinion.pdf.

【56】Networkl8 Net Loss Down 74%, SetPro Rev Falls, TIFC Signs Deals Worth Rs. 240M, on January 21st, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/01/223-network18-net-loss-down-74-setpro-rev-falls-tifc-signs-deals-worth-rs-240m/

【57】Times of India Various Issues [C].

【58】LiveMint, "Multiple SIMs Multiply Amid Tariff War", http://www.livemint.com/2009/11/25223722/Multiple-SIMs-multiply-amid-ta.html

【59】TRAI Report [C].

【60】Paul Budde: "Global Mobile Communications-Key Trends and Growth in a Challenging Environment" Communication Pty Lts [M].

【61】International Music Videos On Hungama; Why Download? EMI, on February 24th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/02/223-international-music-videos-on-hungama-why-download/#more-15446

【62】TRAI Report [C].

【63】USSD: UNSTRUCTURED SUPPLEMENTARY SERVICES DATA.

【64】STK: SIM APPLICATION TOOLKIT.

【65】InMobi Gets $ 8M More Funding from KPCB & Sherpalo; Scale For Sale? On July 14th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/07/223-inmobi-gets-8m-more-funding-from-kpcb-scale-for-sale/

【66】May 2010: 9.24 M Broadband Connections in India; 16.39M Mobile Additions, on July 1st, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/07/223-may-2010-9-24-m-broadband-connections-in-india-16-39m-mobile-additions/

【67】Mobile VAS Co Spice Digital Plans IPO, on July 8th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/07/223-mobile-vas-co-spice-digital-plans-ipo/

【68】Telenity website, www.telenity.com.

【69】The Price Of Mobile Number Portability In India; New Telcos Vs Old, on August 11th, 2009, http://www.medianama.com/2009/08/223-the-price-of-mobile-number-portability-in-india-new-telcos-vs-old/

【70】One97 Communications Files DRHP; To Raise Rs. 120 Crores; Shareholding, Financials, on May 24th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/05/223-one97-communications-files-drhp-to-raise-rs-120-crores-shareholding-financials/#more-17716

【71】MTS Has 5M Mobile, Over 100k Mobile Broadband Subs; Russia To Invest $ 677M For 20% Stake, on June 23rd, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/06/223-mts-has-5m-mobile-over-100k-mobile-broadband-subs-russia-to-invest-677m-for-20-stake/

【72】OnMobile Global Standalone Net Profit Up 22.2%; Content Costs Down, on July 26th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/07/223-onmobile-global-standalone-net-profit-up-22-2-content-costs-down/

【73】OnMobile Global FY10 Revenues Up To Rs. 4.54Bn; Profit Down To Rs. 423M, May 3rd, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/05/223-onmobile-global-fy10-revenues-up-to-rs-4-54bn-prof-it-down-to-rs-423m/

【74】Mobile India 2010: No Innovation In VAS; Why G1, Nexus One Weren't Launched In India, on January 11th, 2010, on February 17th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/02/223-mwc-2010-advertising-analytics-telenity-omniture-shazam-mocean-openwave/

【75】Directions Magazine, October 27th 2007, http://www.directionsmag.com/article.php?arti-cle_id=2587&trv=1

【76】数据来源于CTIA（International Association for the Wireless Telecommunications Industry）网站。

【77】Ratti et al, Mobile Landscapes: using cell phone data for urban analysis, 2005.

【78】Indoor LBS, www.indoorlbs.com.

【79】Business Wire, June 14th 2005, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2005_June_14/ai_n13812802

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【81】http://www.hudong.com/wiki/A-GPS?amp;pf=youdaocitiao&hf=youdaocitiao?hf=youdaocitiao&pf=youdaocitiao

【82】Symbian Developer Network [M], February 2008, Williams 2007, Indoor LBS 2007.

【83】伽利略计划是一个全球导航卫星系统，由欧盟和欧洲太空总署建造。

【84】http://www.ccsa.org.cn/organization/intro.php?org=OMA.

【85】http://www.openmobilealliance.org/AboutOMA/FAQ.aspx

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【87】Directions Magazine, October 27th 2007, http://www.directionsmag.com/article.php?article_id=2587&trv=1

【88】ABI research quoted in Information Week, April 4th 2008. http://www.informationweek.com/news/personal_tech/gps/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=207001893

【89】Berg Insight, quoted in Symbian Developer Network, February 2008, http://developer.symbian.com/main/downloads/papers/LBS/Introduction_to_Location-Based_Services_on_Symbian_OS.pdf

【90】Frost and Sullivan quoted in Indoor LBS. http://www.indoorlbs.com/id570.html

【91】ABI research quoted in Information Week, April 4th 2008. http://www.informationweek.com/news/personal_tech/gps/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=207001893

【92】http://www.telenity.com/press_releases/07052006.php

【93】http://www.bsnl.co.in/service/fleet_management.htm

【94】Airtel Closes In On Zain Acquisition: $ 8.3Bn Financing Oversubscribed, March 22nd, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/03/223-airtel-closes-in-on-zain-acquisition-8-3bn-financing-oversub-scribed/

【95】http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/10/16/stories/2007101650400800.htm

【96】India adds record 15.6 million mobile users in March, April 22, 2009, Financial Products About Thomson Reuters.

【97】Planning Commission 2003, http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/sereport/ser/restruc/stdy_rsturc_ch1.pdf

【98】http://location.net.in/india/2008/conference/Ashulbskp.ppt

【99】http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/when_it_rains_it_pours_for_government/article-show/2929661.cms

【100】http://www.gisdevelopment.net/interview/previous/ev0118Bhati.htm

【101】http://www.gisdevelopment.net/interview/previous/ev0124mark.htm

【102】http://www.tech2.com/biz/india/news/communication/indian-blackberry-users-may-face-govtblackout/20921/0, http://www.bbhub.com/2006/12/28/and-the-1-blackberry-market-in-india-is/

【103】http://www.indoorlbs.com/id72.html

【104】Location The portal on positioning and navigation, www.location.net.in.

【105】LBSZone, www.lbszone.com.

【106】Trai March 2008.

【107】FMCG Majors Offer Mobile Applications To Reel In Users, on July 30th, 2009, http://www.medianama.com/2009/07/223-fmcg-majors-offer-mobile-applications-to-reel-in-users/

【108】3G India Auction: Day 20, Pan India Price At Rs. 103.48 Bn; Gujarat Back, on May 4th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/05/223-3g-india-auction-day-20-pan-india-price-at-rs-103-48-bn-gu-jarat-back/

【109】Future Group In Talks To Acquire Digital Services Co; Plans Mobile, Kiosk Initiatives, on May 18th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/05/223-futuregroup-in-talks-to-acquire-digital-services-co-plans-mobile-kiosk-initiatives/

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【111】http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtnl?articleID=206904955

【112】Noam 1995 [C].

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【114】iPhone Roundup: BSNL, Nazara, Airtel EMI, on September 10th, 2008, http://www.medianama.com/2008/09/223-iphone-roundup-bsnl-nazara-airtel-emi/

【115】Airtel App Central Completes 4 Months; CricketZone Top Paid, Mig33 Top Free App, on June 25th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/06/223-airtel-app-central-completes-4-months-cricketzone-top-paid-mig33-top-free-app/

【116】Airtel's Usage Survey For 2009: 200M Music Downloads, on January 5th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/01/223-airtels-usage-survey-for-2009-200m-music-downloads/

【117】It's Getting Crowded At The Lower End Of India's Handset Market, on July 2nd, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/07/223-its-getting-crowded-at-the-lower-end-of-indias-handset-market/#more-18323

【118】Advertisement: Mobile India 2010, on January 5th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/01/223-advertisement-mobile-india-2010/

【119】3G India Auction: Day 20, Pan India Price At Rs. 103.48 Bn; Gujarat Back, on May 4th, 2010, http://www.medianama.com/2010/05/223-3g-india-auction-day-20-pan-india-price-at-rs-103-48-bn-gujarat-back/

【120】［印］库马，Amitabh Kumar．《移动电视：DVB-H、DMB、3G系统和富媒体应用》（国际信息工程先进技术译丛）。刘荣科、孔亚萍、崔竞飞译．北京：机械工业出版社，2009年。

【121】IMRB Report [C].

【122】PB Sanjeev: Service Innovation [J], Voice & Data, October 2009.