瓜达尔在新兴的“管道政治”中也很重要。能源需求在现代世界经济中占主导地位，特别是矿物燃料为从农业到运输业的各个产业提供能源。瓜达尔能够成为抵达中亚的通道，并可以把中亚的能源运往世界。据估计，中亚的石油储量相当于伊拉克和科威特之和，天然气储量相当于沙特阿拉伯。[60]处于内陆的中亚国家的石油、天然气出口完全依赖于俄罗斯。俄罗斯公司坐享着垄断地位，并从中获得政治和经济好处。例如，有报道称俄罗斯公司购买中亚天然气的价格是其在欧洲市场卖出价的三分之一至四分之一。[61]这也迫使国际买家考虑建设绕过俄罗斯的线路。通过新线路，中亚国家可以把其商品直接以市场价出售给买家。线路有很多选择，最受欢迎的就是最终抵达瓜达尔的TAP线路。管道毫无疑问会使中亚国家及其客户受益，而且也会提高管道拥有者的政治影响力，使其以运输费的形式获得持续稳定的税收收入，并且这些国家还可以轻易获得满足其国内需求的石油和天然气。这就导致竞争加剧，这种竞争不仅存在于区内拥有深水港可以直接联通国际市场的国家，还有需要投资这些项目的能源短缺的国家。每一个利益相关方都在争夺最符合自己国家长远利益的项目。由于瓜达尔港的位置和距离，巴基斯坦可能从这些项目的争夺中获益匪浅。
【注释】
[1]Mahan，The Influence of Sea Power，521.
[2]The capacity of both the ports has since been increased to 67 m tons.
[3]Tahir Wasim et al.，Gwadar，12－14.
[4]Martin Reiser and Dennis De Tray，“Uzbekistan”，in Silk Road Studies，206－220，available atwww.silkroadstudies.org，accessed on May 13，2012.
[5]Tahir Wasim et al.，Gwadar，14－15.
[6]一个管道的价值不能只看距离，还要看建设成本、运营成本、安全性等因素。——译者注
[7]In 2003，Hu Jintao in a speech to senior partymembers at an economic work conference highlighted what he called the“Malacca Dilemma”.China’s 80%trade，including its oil imports，has to pass through the Malacca Straits thus highlighting the vulnerability of the route.
[8]Tahir Wasim et al.，Gwadar，16.
[9]Hash V.Pant，The Rise of the Indian Navy，（London：Ashgate，2012），3.
[10]西方国家传统上把世界海洋划分成7个部分，即北冰洋、北大西洋、南大西洋、北太平洋、南太平洋、印度洋和南冰洋。——译者注
[11]Term coined by the author during a speech on，“Extra－Regional Influences in the Indian Ocean，Emerging Indo－USNexus and its Bearing on Pak－China Relationship”，in an international seminar titled 60 Years of Pak－China Relations：Landmarks，Trendsand Approaches，Islamabad：Institute of Policy Studies，April12，2011.
[12]Wiki http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.＿Army＿Forces＿in＿the＿Middle＿East，accessed on August14，2012.
[13]Wiki http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United＿States＿Naval＿Forces＿Central＿Command，accessed on August 14，2012.
[14]A doctrinal statement titled A Cooperative Strategy for the 21st Century Sea Power，issued jointly by the US Navy，Marine Corps and the Coast Guards，October 2007，9.
[15]Hussain，“Pakistan’s Gwadar Port”，121.
[16]Ibid.，122.
[17]Abdus Sattar Ghazali，“India Alarmed as Chinese Built Gwadar Port of Pakistan becomes Operational”，February 8，2008，http：//www.countercurrents.org/ghazali080208.htm.
[18]Hussain，“Pakistan’s Gwadar Port”，59.
[19]French President Sarkozy commissioned amilitary base in Abu Dhabion May 26，2009，the first permanentmilitary establishment created by the French Republic in a foreign country since over half a century.The Abu Dhabi base，Sarkozy said，“illustrates the responsibilities that France，as aworld power，intends to assume alongside its special partners in a region that is a nerve center for the entire world”.
[20]Hussain，“Pakistan’s Gwadar Port”，142.
[21]India imported 4.1 million barrels/day of oil in January 2013，sixty one percent of it coming from the Middle East.
[22]Ghazali，“India Alarmed”.
[23]Donald L.Berlin，“India in the Indian Ocean”，http：//www.bharat－rakshak.com/NAVY/History/2000s/Donald.pdf，accessed on December 31，2010.
[24]Robert Blake（US Assistant Secretary of State）has recently reiterated this stance in Beijing on March 18，2011，he says，“we think India’s going to be one of our defining partnerships in the 21st Century”.
[25]Azhar，“Extra－Regional Influences in the Indian Ocean”，55.
[26]Ghazali，“India Alarmed”.The distance of Strait of Hormuz is incorrectly stated for exaggeration；the correct distance is 356 nm as has been mentioned earlier.
[27]Ibid.
[28]http：//blogs.reuters.com/afghanistan/2011/05/26/in－pakistans－gwadar－port－chinese－whispers－grow/，accessed on August12，2012.
[29]Hussain，“Pakistan’s Gwadar Port”，149.
[30]Official EIA website，www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm？fips＝CH，accessed on September 13，2012.
[31]Joseph Nye Jr.，The Paradox of American Power（New York：Oxford University Press，2002），19.
[32]Hussain，“Pakistan’s Gwadar Port”，50.
[33]http：//www.china－window.com/china＿market/china＿industry＿reports/western－region－development.，accessed on May 30，2013.
[34]China’s Peaceful Development，1st ed.，a doctrinal document issued by China’s Information Office of the State Council，（2011），14.
[35]PervezMahmood，“Riding China’s EconomicWave，National Trade Corridor：The Road to Prosperity”，IBEX，January 2009，18－21.
[36]“Official Speaks About Discrepancy in Pak－China Trade Statistics”，Business Recorder，（September 5，2012）.
[37]Xuecheng Lieu，“China’s Energy Security”，Stanley Foundation Policy Analysis Brief，September 2006，available at http：//reports－stanleyfoundation.org.
[38]根据美国能源信息署的报告，2013年9月份美国日均石油消费与国内产量差额为624万桶/天，同期中国的差额为630万桶/天，中国成为全球最大的原油净进口国。参见http：//finance.china.com.cn/industry/energy/nyyw/20131012/1866925.shtml。——译者注
[39]Data from EIA.
[40]Data from EIA.
[41]Tahir Wasim et al.，Gwadar，14.
[42]The strategy was outlined in a paper“String of Pearls：Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising Power Across the Asian Littoral”，by Lieutenant－Colonel Christopher J.Pehrson，of the Pentagon’s Air Staff，in Carlisle Papers in Security Strategy，July 2006.
[43]Mahmood，“Riding China’s Economic Wave”，20.
[44]http：//www.cfr.org/china/expanding－china－africa－oil－ties/p9557，accessed on September 13，2012.
[45]http：//professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903392904576510271838147248．html？mgaccessed on September 13，2012.
[46]http：//www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011－11/16/content＿14107209.htm，accessed on September 13，2012.
[47]Lu Yong，“China’s trade Rush with Africa”，http：//www.fmprc.gov.cn/zflt/eng/zfgx/t820242.htm，accessed on September 13，2012.
[48]Guangming Daily，（Beijing）http：//en.gmw.cn/2012－09/11/content＿5043350.htm.
[49]http：//hisamullahbeg.blogspot.com/2011/01/link－between－gawadarport－and－kkh.html，accessed onSeptember 1，2012.
[50]China’s Peaceful Development，3，22，18.
[51]Michael Kort，Nations in Transition：Central Asian Republics（New York，Facts on File，2004），vi.
[52]According to some estimates the Alaska and North Sea deposits will exhaust by 2015（Constantine Arvanitopoulos，“The Geopolitics of Oil in Central Asia”，March 2002）.
[53]Data collected from official websites of CIA and EIA on September 22－23，2012.
[54]“Integrating Central Asia into the World Economy：The Role of Energy and Transport Infrastructure”，A report prepared by the Carnegie Endowment and Wolfensohn Center For Development（Brookings），October，2007.
[55]Arvanitopoulos，“The Geopolitics of Oil”.
[56]Jesus Felip and Utsav Kumar，“The Role of Trade Facilitation in Central A-sia：A Gravity Model”，New York Levy Economics Institute，Working Paper No.68，October 2010，7.
[57]Tahir Wasim et al.，Gwadar，16.
[58]According to estimates Afghanistan can earn US＄100－300 million per year in transit fees from TAPI project.
[59]网上没有查到该组织的信息。——译者注
[60]Murtha，“Strategic Importance of Balochistan”.
[61]Ariel Cohen，“U.S.Interests and Central Asia Energy Security”，The Heritage Foundation，November 15，2006，http：//www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/11/us－interests－and－central－asia－energy－security.
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