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把恐惧熔断

时间:2023-07-09 百科知识 版权反馈
【摘要】:2015年的资本市场,让投资者经历了一次过山车般的体验,而且还付出了天价的门票。这一方案,经过初步讨论通过后,于2016年正式施行。2016年1月7日深夜,证监会宣布暂停指数熔断机制。“指数熔断机制”在正式执行仅仅四天之后,光荣退休,享年四天。对比美国的熔断机制,你会发现,我们的5%和7%两档指数熔断档位比美国要低得多,这意味着市场辗转腾挪和可波动的空间更小。

2015年的资本市场,让投资者经历了一次过山车般的体验,而且还付出了天价的门票。面对暴涨暴跌的非理性繁荣,如何给市场系上一条可靠的安全带,让每一个参与资本市场的投资者得到有效的保护呢?正如每一次失窃后,保险柜的厚度才得以提升;每一次黑客攻击后,防火墙的级别才得到升级;每一次失火后,应急预案才得到强化。经历了“那么痛的领悟”之后,出于对市场的保护,“指数熔断机制”在2016年正式推出并施行,一出大戏,也即将上演。

不知在你的记忆中,是否有过停电的印象?晚上,你正在房间做事,忽然眼前一黑,然后伴随着叹息声,大家穿着拖鞋,摇着扇子,纷纷从屋子里走出来,聚在一起,等待着“重见光明”。这样的场景在今天很少见,可是在当年却很普遍。因为那时是一个中国经济发展的黄金年代,也是一段投资高速增长、工业生产加速跑、带动经济两位数高速增长的光辉岁月,你家大院的生活用电要让位于工业生产用电,于是就有了拉闸限电这个“历史典故”。

回到当时的那个场景之下,当你把空调、电视、冰箱、洗衣机全部同时打开后,还记得发生了什么吗?灯一黑,跳闸了!本以为又是停电,可是遥望远方依然万家灯火,别人家孩子还在挑灯夜读,这时你才发现原来是保险丝烧了。当电器功率过大、电流集中通过的时候,出于安全的考虑,保险丝会融化掉,让你强制断电,这个熔断机制,是保证家庭用电安全的重要保障。

举一反三,我们很自然地就会想到,既然当电压和电流不听话的时候,我们可以用熔断机制把危险隔离,那么当市场不听话,指数像电流一样上下乱窜的时候,我们能不能用这个熔断机制,把资本市场的风险隔离掉呢?

历史无数次地证明,只有遇到挑战,才能激发人们的反思。当1987年10月,美国股市一天下跌了500多点,遭遇历史上最恐慌的时刻之后,美国人就痛定思痛发明了资本市场的熔断机制,一旦短时间内市场大幅下跌,马上启动熔断机制,就像上面提到的保险丝烧掉一样,暂停所有现货交易,保障市场安全。美国市场在推出这一机制后,并没有急于投入实操,而是对该机制的波幅计算做了四次修改,最终定下了7%、13%和20%三档阈值,触及前两档都只是暂停交易15分钟,当触及20%的阈值时才会彻底停止全天交易。

在美国市场成熟的经验和现成的规则面前,很多人发出疑问,既然这东西这么好,为什么我们不把它直接引进来呢?其实,我们为了隔离风险,使用的是另一套制度,叫作涨跌停制度,一旦一家公司的交易价格相比昨日,涨跌达到10个百分点,那么价格立即锁死,就像一台遭遇限速的汽车一样,只能乖乖减速。但是屋漏偏逢连夜雨,2015年夏天,在经历了两个月史无前例的股灾之后,大家忽然发现,涨跌停虽然限制了一家公司的价格波动,但是它无法阻止有突发状况时整个市场的非理性波动。很多大型机构持有的都是投资组合,当危机出现时,这些大型机构的投资组合会遭遇缩水,当客户们看到自己的资产净值瀑布式回落,他们就会向机构们提出赎回申请。为了应对巨额的资金赎回压力,机构们就会抛出那些可以交易的公司来应急,而当大家集体恐慌时,资本市场就会因此遭遇挤兑,该跌的、不该跌的统统下跌,好东西也被拿出来卖掉应急,最终救人的也被拖下了水。当这种非常时刻出现时,跌停板已经解决不了问题,一道全新的防火墙、一个更加安全的马其诺防线,就被提上了议事日程。经过初步讨论,一旦市场在单日内涨跌达到5%,则暂停交易15分钟,让大家“面壁思过”,冷静一下情绪;一旦涨跌达到7%,全市场交易宣告停止,直接结束当日交易,休市。这一方案,经过初步讨论通过后,于2016年正式施行。然而,从这一刻开始,剧情的逆转,就已经被埋下了一个巨大的伏笔。

2016年伊始,在一片许愿的钟声里,全球市场在人们的猝不及防中,急速切换到了跳水模式。没有人能想到,又一个奥运之年,最先揭幕的竟然是“跳水比赛”:股市跌、商品跌、汇率跌、油价跌。

在这出集体下跌的大戏中,领衔主演的正是内地资本市场,我们的老朋友A股先生。这次他扮演的竟然是一个男扮女装的反串角色——“熔嬷嬷”。“她”使出了浑身的力气,在新年第一周的四个交易日中,四天狠狠地扎了所有人四下,指数在新年第一周下跌达到10%,市值缩水超过了7万亿元。大家忽闪着迷惑和慌张的双眼,在保险丝反复熔断的狭小房间里,点上了一支蜡烛,就在此刻,忽然白光一闪,来电了。2016年1月7日深夜,证监会宣布暂停指数熔断机制。这意味着“熔嬷嬷”这只年迈的大黄蜂,在蛰了别人之后,也因为倒刺的拔出,宣告了自己的牺牲。“指数熔断机制”在正式执行仅仅四天之后,光荣退休,享年四天。

所有人都不明白:本来是出于对市场的保护,希望建立起一道隔离风险的防火墙,为什么最后却反而误伤了自己?这也让我们想到了这个时代的一种流行疾病,它总是被冠以爱的名义,到最后却常常搅得大家不欢而散。就像有一种冷,叫作妈妈觉得你冷。出于呵护和爱意,她会在夏天给你套上厚厚的棉衣;会在污染严重的冬日,把你关在小房间,严格限制你的一切行动;她也常常不分青红皂白,在任何情况下都温柔嘱托,让你多喝点水。为何本来用心向善的“指数熔断机制”却最终事与愿违,反而加大了市场的恐慌和波动呢?

对比美国的熔断机制,你会发现,我们的5%和7%两档指数熔断档位比美国要低得多,这意味着市场辗转腾挪和可波动的空间更小。更重要的是,美国资本市场是没有涨跌停板的限制的,这就意味着,我们被“妈妈”锁在了家里,然后又被关在了自己的小房间里。市场就像一个调皮捣蛋又好奇心爆棚的熊孩子一样,越要束缚它,反而越触发了它的好奇心,它左冲右突拼命想看看外面的世界。终于,“妈妈”在下班回来后,发现它已经跌倒在了地上。

之所以会出现这样的结果,关键原因是流动性的枯竭。资本市场除了具备“羊群效应”的一致性预期特点之外,还有一个“抢跑效应”的特点,假如大家发现前方10米处有怪物,存在风险,那么就会有人在8米的地方打提前量,提前抢跑。当大家发现指数即将跌至5%的熔断点时,就会“提前抢跑”,这种一致性预期瞬间将市场逼至5%的熔断档位。一旦交易暂停,大家唯恐再触发7%的休市档位,又再次集体抢跑,于是7%也被瞬间熔断。在心理学和行为金融学中,都有一个说法,叫作“自我实现的预言”,当大家集体担忧、集体抢跑时,那么这种“预言”就变成了现实。市场被限制得越死,整个市场的流动性压力就越大,大家或急于脱手,或急于拿货,于是,短时间内整个市场的波动反而被加大了。

我们反复在思考一件事情,到底我们的市场需要怎么样的规则?什么样的制度建设是最有利于我们的市场的?其实核心就是要保证两件事情:一是保证价值,二是保障交易。

一个好的市场,首先应该具备价值。什么叫价值?一个资产的价值,来源于它的回报,一个物业的优秀与否,要看它的租金回报是高还是低;一家企业的优秀与否,要看它一年到底赚多还是赚少;判断公司和股票的好坏,不是看它股价有多大的弹性,短期有多高的爆发力,而应该看年底它到底给了投资人多少真金白银的分红,只有分红才是股票这样一个金融资产的价值。可以这样说,判断一个金融资产优质与否的唯一标准,就是看它的现金回报,这是价值唯一而且不变的基石。

一个好的市场,应该保证的第二点,也是最重要的一点,是保障交易机制。什么叫保障交易机制?就是让想买的人买得进,让想卖的人卖得出。良好的规则、制度和契约制定的前提,应该是保证交易得以进行。回想一下2015年股灾最宝贵的经验教训是什么?其实就是在关键时刻注入流动性。当流动性枯竭,那些想卖的人卖不出去,反而会引发连锁的情绪效应。保证交易的进行,是救市精神的精髓。市是市场的市。什么是市场?就是买卖自由,童叟无欺。

恐慌和非理性的情绪可以熔断,但是交易机制不能熔断,真正的价值不应也不会被熔断。期待我们下一次再点蜡烛的时候,是庆祝生日,而不再是为了照明。

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